Trump’s Policies Cast Shadow Over US Tourism Outlook
Recent legislative initiatives by US President Donald Trump have sparked concerns about the future of US tourism, with fears of a stronger dollar, rising prices, and growing antipathy toward the country among international visitors. A report by Tourism Economics, released last month, predicts a 5.1% decline in foreign visitor arrivals to the US in 2025, a stark reversal from the previously anticipated 8.8% growth.
The report also forecasts a 10.9% drop in spending by international tourists. Since its publication, the situation has worsened, according to Tourism Economics president Adam Sacks, who cited increasing “antipathy towards the US” as a key factor.
In recent weeks, the Trump administration has imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, while threatening to extend them to the European Union. Additionally, stringent immigration policies and controversial plans for conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have further fueled global tensions.
Tourism Economics, a subsidiary of Oxford Economics, warned that “polarizing Trump Administration policies and rhetoric… will discourage travel to the US.” The organization also noted that some businesses may avoid hosting events or sending employees to the US, impacting business travel.
The World Tourism Forum Institute echoed these concerns, stating that a combination of strict immigration policies, a strong dollar, and global political tensions “could significantly affect” international arrivals, potentially reshaping the US tourism sector for years to come.
A December survey by YouGov revealed that 35% of respondents from 16 European and Asian countries were less likely to visit the US under Trump, while 22% were more likely.
Tourists Share Mixed Reactions
Despite these concerns, some tourists interviewed by AFP in New York’s Times Square said Trump’s policies had not deterred their travel plans. Marianela Lopez and Ailen Hadjikovakis, both 33-year-old Argentinians, used their European passports instead of their Argentine ones to avoid potential border issues. “We were a bit scared about the situation, but we didn’t change our plans,” Lopez said.
The Lagardere family from France also remained unfazed. “The Americans elected this president. It’s democracy. If they’re not happy, they’ll change it in four years,” said Laurent Lagardere, 54. He added that avoiding the US “won’t change anything.”
Decline in Canadian Visitors
Western Europeans, Canadians, and Mexicans are among the most likely to choose alternative destinations. The US Travel Association warned in early February that tariffs could deter Canadians, who accounted for 20.4 million visitors in 2024, making them the largest group of foreign tourists in the US.
Statistics Canada reported a 23% year-on-year decline in Canadians returning from the US in February, marking the second consecutive monthly drop. In New York, which welcomed 12.9 million foreign travelers in 2024, the impact is already evident. NYC Tourism president Julie Coker noted cancellations of Canadian tour bookings and a decline in online searches for hotels and Broadway shows.
Coker adjusted her forecast for the year in February but emphasized that the decline is currently limited to Canadian visitors. “We’re not currently seeing anything from the UK or Europe,” she said, adding that the situation is being closely monitored.
Economic and Immigration Concerns
United Airlines and other carriers have reported a significant drop in travel from Canada to the US, as well as reduced demand for domestic travel. Tourism Economics estimates that the tourism sector could lose approximately $64 billion in revenue in 2025 due to declining international and domestic travel.
Economic uncertainty, including fears of recession and inflation, is also deterring tourists. A stronger US dollar could make travel to the US more expensive, further reducing visitor numbers and shortening the average length of stay.
Professionals in the tourism industry are also concerned about the impact of stricter immigration policies on major sporting events hosted by the US, such as the Ryder Cup (2025), the FIFA World Cup (2026), and the 2026 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles.
As the US navigates these challenges, the tourism sector faces a critical period of adjustment, with potential long-term implications for its global standing and economic contributions.
