Japan Travel Takes a Hit as Earthquake Rumors Deter Hong Kong Tourists
Unfounded online rumors predicting a major earthquake in Japan have led to a noticeable drop in travel demand among Hong Kong residents, affecting travel agencies and airlines operating in the region.
In 2024 alone, Hong Kong residents made nearly 2.7 million trips to Japan. However, misleading claims circulating on social media and messaging platforms have sparked widespread concern, even though predicting earthquakes with precision remains scientifically impossible.
Among the viral posts is a reference to a Japanese manga reissued in 2021, where the author predicts a massive natural disaster in July 2025—claiming it came from a dream. Other posts suggest alternative dates, and one Facebook group dedicated to forecasting disasters in Japan has attracted over 250,000 members, mainly from Hong Kong and Taiwan.
Frankie Chow, CEO of CLS Holiday in Hong Kong, said customer behavior has shifted significantly. “The earthquake prophecy has drastically affected travelers’ choices,” he told AFP. “In March and April, we received 70–80% fewer inquiries for trips to Japan compared to the previous year.” Chow also runs the travel booking platform Flyagain.la and noted that while some people opted to travel elsewhere, many were simply too afraid to go anywhere.
Despite Japan’s advanced infrastructure and stringent building codes designed to minimize damage from frequent mild-to-moderate earthquakes, memories of the 2011 disaster—which involved a magnitude 9.0 quake, a tsunami, and the Fukushima nuclear meltdown—continue to shape public fear.
In Hong Kong, where tremors are almost never felt, misinformation still has a powerful influence. Chow emphasized how easily disinformation can take hold.
In response to growing concerns, Japan’s Cabinet Office posted on social media platform X last month: “It is not scientifically possible to predict the exact date, time, or location of earthquakes.” According to officials, this was part of routine earthquake awareness efforts. However, local media suggested it was also a response to rising speculation fueled by a government panel’s recent update on earthquake risk.
The panel reported a slightly higher probability—now 75% to 82%—of a major earthquake along the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years. This update was followed by a revised government estimate in March projecting up to 298,000 deaths in the event of such a disaster, contributing to public anxiety.
The heightened fear was further amplified by popular media, including a YouTube video from HK01 featuring a feng shui expert advising against travel to Japan. The video has amassed over 100,000 views.
Some residents, like 32-year-old social worker Don Hon, say they are not fully convinced by the rumors but are still being cautious. “Just to be safe, I’m not planning a trip to Japan,” he said. “If friends ask, I’ll suggest a different destination.”
Airlines are adjusting accordingly. Greater Bay Airlines, based in Hong Kong, has cut flights to Tokushima due to plummeting demand. A local tourism official said weekly flights will be reduced from three to two between May 12 and October 25. The airline has also scaled back flights to Sendai in northern Japan.
In response, Miyagi Prefecture Governor Yoshihiro Murai urged calm: “There’s no need for panic. People here aren’t fleeing.” However, he acknowledged the damage misinformation can do. “If baseless social media rumors are hurting tourism, it’s a serious issue.”
Official data from the Japan National Tourism Organization show that Hong Kong visitor numbers in March dropped to 208,400, nearly 10% lower than last year. Still, the agency noted that this could also be due to Easter holidays falling in April instead of March.
Meanwhile, Steve Huen Kwok-chuen of EGL Tours in Hong Kong said his agency hasn’t seen a major decline in interest, though hotel bookings from Hong Kong at their Japan properties have slowed. Bookings from other countries remain steady.
“If nothing happens, people will soon realize these rumors are baseless,” he added.
