Amid growing pressure on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, a key political party leader in Canada declared on Friday that he would vote in favor of a no-confidence motion, effectively ensuring the Liberals’ exit from power early next year. This comes after Chrystia Freeland’s resignation as finance minister over policy disagreements with Trudeau earlier this week.
Here are some possible scenarios for Canada’s future:
What happens if Trudeau resigns? If Trudeau steps down, the Liberal Party will appoint an interim leader to serve as prime minister while preparing for a leadership convention. However, organizing such a convention typically takes months, and if an election is called before it concludes, the Liberals could be led by an interim prime minister who was not chosen by the party’s members, an unprecedented situation in Canada. Although the party might opt for a quicker convention, it could spark protests from candidates feeling disadvantaged by the rushed process.
Could the Liberal Party expel Trudeau? Unlike in the UK, where party leaders are selected by parliamentary caucuses and can be swiftly replaced, Canadaβs Liberal Party chooses its leader through a convention of its members. Therefore, there is no official party mechanism to remove Trudeau if he chooses to remain. However, if enough cabinet members and legislators demand his departure, he may decide to step down.
Can Parliament expel Trudeau? In Canada, a government must maintain the confidence of the House of Commons, and losing a confidence vote on key issues like budgets typically leads to the government’s downfall. Such a motion could trigger an immediate election. The House of Commons is currently on winter break and will not reconvene until January 27. This means any confidence vote would likely be held in late February or March, as the opposition would need time to propose a motion.
Could Trudeau be forced out in another way? While ultimate constitutional authority rests with the Governor General, who represents the monarch, it is unlikely that the Governor General would remove Trudeau unless he loses the confidence of the House. According to Philippe Lagasse, a constitutional expert, “The governor general wonβt dismiss a prime minister who still holds the confidence of the Commons.”
How might Trudeau survive? The Liberals currently hold a minority of seats in the House of Commons, relying on the support of other parties to govern. The New Democrats, who share a similar voter base, have been instrumental in keeping Trudeau in power but are now pledging to bring him down. Bloc Quebecois leader, on the other hand, suggests that Trudeau could not withstand a no-confidence vote if one is called in early 2025.
What other options does Trudeau have? One option for Trudeau is to prorogue Parliament, effectively ending the current session and providing him with a temporary reprieve. This would delay the return of the House for several weeks, giving the government time to unveil a new plan. While this could postpone any no-confidence motions, it could also deepen dissatisfaction among Liberal legislators, especially if Trudeau remains as prime minister.
