Canada’s Liberal Party is set to announce Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s successor on Sunday, who will take over as both party leader and head of the Canadian government amid an escalating trade war with the United States that threatens to harm the Canadian economy. The new prime minister will face the challenge of negotiating with US President Donald Trump, who has threatened additional tariffs on Canada, while also preparing for a potential general election against the opposition Conservatives.
Trudeau announced his resignation in January after more than nine years in office, as his approval ratings declined sharply. This prompted the ruling Liberal Party to expedite the process of selecting his replacement. Drew Fagan, a professor at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, commented, “Is it ideal in a circumstance of bilateral crisis for us? I suppose not. But on the other hand, the process is playing out domestically as it should.”
Former central banker Mark Carney is the leading candidate, having secured the most endorsements from party members and raising the highest amount of funds among the four contenders. Approximately two-thirds of Trudeau’s cabinet publicly support Carney, and a late February Mainstreet poll showed Carney with 43% support among Liberals, compared to 31% for his main rival, former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.
Freeland, who has highlighted her experience negotiating with Trump during his first term, has struggled to distinguish herself from Trudeau, having been one of his most loyal supporters for years. She left his government in December after Trudeau attempted to replace her and criticized his administration’s spending policies.
If elected, Carney, 59, would become the first Canadian prime minister without a prior political background. He has emphasized his experience as the governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, arguing that this makes him the best candidate to handle Trump’s aggressive trade policies.
Around 400,000 Liberal members were eligible to vote for the party leader, with the first round of results expected to be announced at approximately 6:30 pm (2230 GMT). During the campaign, Carney advocated for dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs against the US and a coordinated strategy to boost investment. He has frequently criticized Canada’s economic growth under Trudeau as insufficient.
The prospect of a fresh start under Carney, combined with Trump’s tariff threats and his provocative remarks about annexing Canada as the 51st US state, has led to a surprising resurgence in Liberal Party support. At the start of 2025, the party trailed by over 20 points but is now statistically tied with the Conservatives in several polls.
Richard Johnston, a politics professor at the University of British Columbia, noted, “There is a rallying around the flag moment that we would never have predicted a year ago. I think it’s probably true as we speak that the Liberals have been saved from oblivion.”
Regardless of the election outcome, the new prime minister will face immediate challenges. The minority Liberal government may encounter a confidence vote when Parliament reconvenes at the end of March, potentially triggering an early election. The new leader could choose to call an election immediately to avoid the complexities of forming a cabinet. By law, an election must be held no later than October 20.
Current polls suggest that neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives would secure a majority government. While Carney could legally serve as prime minister without a seat in the House of Commons, tradition dictates that he should seek to win one promptly. In 1984, John Turner became prime minister without being a legislator after winning the Liberal leadership race.
